What a wild ride it’s been for TCU’s freshman year under head coach Sonny Dykes.
With a perfect 11-0, the Horned Frogs have already secured a spot in the Big 12 championship game and are firmly entrenched in the college football playoff discussion — something you would have laughed at if you brought it up preseason .
Before that, Iowa State (4-7) awaits in the regular season finale.
Can the Cinderalla story go on for at least another week?
Check out our Iowa State Cyclones and TCU Horned Frogs college football tips and predictions on Saturday, November 26 to find out.
Iowa State vs TCU best odds
Selection and predictions between Iowa State and TCU
TCU is no longer able to win games convincingly to earn CFP committee approval. The task is simple, at least on paper. Advance payment. Survive. Win by any means necessary.
If the Horned Frogs win, they’ll be guaranteed a place in the College Football Playoffs as an undefeated Power 5 team. They are the first Big 12 team to start the season 11-0 since the current edition of the league took shape in 2012, and there are no other contenders that could secure the Horned Frogs’ place in the playoffs – as long as they win! It doesn’t have to be dominant, like last week’s field goal triumph over rival Baylor, as long as the result is a win.
The Horned Frogs’ final regular-season opponent is an Iowa State team struggling under Matt Campbell. The Cyclones lost many key figures from a year ago, including four-year-old quarterback Brock Purdy, all-world running back Breece Hall, and numerous key defensive figures. Those losses were evident on the field as the Cyclones sit bottom in the Big 12 with a 1-7 record in conference play.
The main problem for Iowa State was a lackluster offense that scored just 20.7 points per game. The Cyclones struggled to move the ball in any way, ranking 101st in expected points added per game, 102nd in win rate, and 91st in explosiveness.
First-year starter Hunter Dekkers, a big lefty, pilots an unspectacular pass attack that ranks 67th in the EPA per pass. They lack the ability to consistently pick up big yards in the air and rank 106th in the pass blast. They fight particularly well in set pieces and rank 120th in the set downs success rate. The rushing attack was particularly bad, peaking at #128 in EPA per rush, #125 in rushing success rate, and #121 in rushing explosiveness. That shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the offensive line has struggled mightily, ranking 125th in line yards and 110th in stuff rate.
TCU doesn’t get much credit for its defense, but the Horned Frogs are solid on this side of the ball, allowing 25.5 PPG. They recently held Texas – a far superior offense to that of the State of Iowa— to just 10 points without allowing an offensive touchdown throughout the game.
Because as bad as the Cyclones were on offense, they were good on defense. They only allow 16.5 PPG, good for eighth national place. They also love the advanced stats as they rank 19th in EPA per game, 40th in success rate and 3rd in explosiveness. Limiting big plays against TCU is crucial, and the state of Iowa may be primed to do just that.
TCU’s offense may not be working 100% given that three of their best playmakers (running back Kendre Miller, as well as receivers Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis) were absent at the end of the Baylor game through injuries. Miller and Davis are both back in training, but Johnston’s ongoing ankle injury is a cause for concern.
A limping TCU team will try to do whatever it takes to advance and survive, so this doesn’t have the makings of an offensive game. Iowa State struggles year-round to move the ball while playing great defense, so this course is good for an under.
my best bet: Under 47.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Iowa State vs. TCU Spread Analysis
The spread is fixed at TCU -10 in most locations, although a -9.5 is also available at the time of writing.
The Horned Frogs have been a delight for bettors this season with a cool 8-2-1 against the spread. One of those ATS losses came in last week’s 29-28 win over Baylor, which wasn’t enough to cover the 2.5 points.
The Cyclones were on the other side of things, posting an ugly 4-6-1 ATS record. They have particularly struggled against strong opponents, going only 2-8-1 ATS against teams with a track record.
The Horned Frogs have a significant quarterbacking advantage, as Max Duggan leads Dekkers in yards per attempt (9.3-6.8) and touchdowns (26-18) while throwing significantly fewer interceptions (3-13).
It’s hard to bet against TCU at this point, but it’s hard to have much faith in them when they’re covering that number with their three best-skilled players and the motto for them is just “survive and advance.” “. If this game scores as low as most Iowa State games, this is probably a close game where trusting TCU to win by two touchdowns is too much for me. Bend towards Iowa State on the spread.
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Iowa State vs. TCU Over/Under Analysis
If you bet on the Iowa State Unders in every game this season, you’ve won a pretty penny. The Cyclones have conceded the under in nine of their 11 games, and their games average just 37.2 PPG. If you’re just isolating for conference games, Iowa State is a perfect 7-0 for the unders in the Big 12.
Battling in most major offensive categories, the Cyclones rank 119th in rushing yards (103.4 YPG), 81st in total yards (373.4 YPG), and 110th in points scored (20, 7PPG). They particularly stand out in passing yards, where they rank 29th nationally with an average of 270 YPG. They haven’t been particularly efficient, however, as that mileage is largely due to them playing from behind in most of their games.
This will be a battle of strength versus strength when TCU has the ball. The Horned Frogs are 12th overall (482.1 YPG), while the Cyclones are 8th defensively with 277.3 YPG. Although Miller and Davis seem to be headed in the right direction considering they both trained this week, it’s still concerning when they hit less than 100% and Dykes chooses to give them fewer reps than normal , when they build up an early lead. Miller was named a Doak Walker Award semifinalist while Johnston is a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, so their health is particularly important at this handicap.
Iowa State vs. TCU betting trend to get to know
Iowa State has beaten the Unders 7-0 in their last seven conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. TCU.
Iowa State vs. TCU Game Information
|Location:||Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX|
|Kicking off:||4:00 p.m. ET|
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