LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Curly Jack (3-1)

Iroquois (G3) winner Curly Jack will be looking to regain some of the shine he lost with a dozen-long defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Amoss Trainee has tactical quickness, and while his Brisnet speed stats aren’t top notch, he fits into this group. exotics.

Curly Jack has had a hit-or-miss career so far. He did well in his debut, the Juvenile at Ellis Park, and the Iroquois (G3), but left a little to be desired in the Sanford (G3) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). While his Brisnet Speed ​​stats aren’t the best of the crop, he is undefeated at Churchill Downs. The return to a favorite track should suit him well. candidate.

2. Western Ghent (20-1)

Western Ghent made it into the winners’ circle once in seven starts, a $75,000 event in Saratoga that won for the first time. Last month he staggered 41 lengths behind the winner of the Street Sense Stakes. ’nuff said. Happen.

Western Ghent has shown no reason why he should be in this race, but leave it to D. Wayne Lukas to swing for the fences when he should be bunting. This son of the American Pharoah has only hit the board twice in seven starts, neither coming in in his two races at Churchill Downs. Happen.

3. Denington (12-1)

Denington was looking good and shot his way to a 1 3/4 long win here last month on his second start after two laps. He was a comfortable fifth place for much of the race, and it took little more than a hand ride to take command of the course and push back the second-placed horse. Gun Runner’s son shows a pass/fail cycle in his four starts; but maybe the handsome gray stallion just needed time to mature. He comes from the family of experienced handicap horse Rail Trip and Belmont Stakes hero Palace Malice. Ken McPeek won the Kentucky Jockey Club last year with Smile Happy, last year’s premier winner, and over the past three years the trainer has had a 27 percent win and 47 percent in the money ratio with last year’s premier winner at the stake angle. Despite all the positive results, Denington ran a career-best rating in his last start, a 14-point jump, and could fall behind. i will regret it happen.

Denington seems to do his best when he’s on the pace or pushing the pace. In his two bad races he was 2 1/2 lengths or more behind the pacemaker, while in his two good races he was either setting the pace or within 1 1/2 lengths of the leader. I personally like that all four career races were either one mile or 1 1/16 mile long. His previous two Churchill races were mediocre and then good, earning him a 2-1-0-0 record among the Twin Spiers. Trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. hit together with a current win rate of 19 percent. As a Gun Runner son, I think this stallion will mature over time. For today I would use it underneathif i decide to play it.

4. giant (12-1)

Steve Asmussen is hoping to shake things up for Gigante by putting him back in the dirt after a dismal 10th place finish in the Bourbon (G2). The Not This Time son won his second start with a 103 late pace rating on dirt, so maybe the surface change and jock switch to Corey Lanerie will do him good. Corey teamed up with Smile Happy to win this race last year. The only downside is that it faces a much tougher audience than Colonial. Happen.

Gigante’s only start in the dirt was a win at Colonial. He also captured the Kitten’s Joy on the Colonial lawn. Unfortunately, his other two territories were rather bleak. Returning to the dirt is likely to bode well for the Not This Time son and trainer Steve Asmussen has won with turf-to-dirt runners by a 20 per cent clip. While he might improve with the change of surface, Gigante will likely find this field tougher than the one he faced at Colonial. Happen.

5. Red Route One (7-2)

Red Route One made a credible switch to dirt in the Breeders’ Futurity and earned third place. Although Gun Runner’s son wasn’t in the same league as Forte, it was a reasonable effort. Unfortunately, the Asmussen trainee couldn’t carry that form into the Street Sense Stakes, where he finished a distant fifth on a sloppy track. Red Route Run’s full brother, Red Run, is a multiple winner on turf. Her dam is a full sister to 2014 champion Filly Untapable and a half to Grade 1 winner Paddy O’Prado who was very capable on turf and clay. I draw a line through Red Route One’s Street Sense performance. A jock switch to the meet’s lead driver, Tyler Gaffalione, makes Red Route One worth a look. exotics.

Red Route One has quite a good pedigree, his dam is a full sister to champion Untapable and half sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O’Prado. This Gun Runner son won straight away on the Kentucky Downs turf and then switched to dirt for the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He bounced back strongly on long chances to finish third behind eventual Breeders’ Cup winners Juvenile (G1) Forte and the highly regarded Loggins. His second start was here at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense (G3). He ran a distant fifth behind the runner-up Hayes Strikebut I’m willing to forgive that performance as he probably didn’t appreciate the sloppy conditions. exotics.

6. freedom path (6-1)

The Kentucky Jockey Club looks like an odd choice for Freedom Trail to make its first start on dirt when Remsen (G2) is in its backyard next week. But I don’t think a $200,000 pot competes with a $400,000 pot. Either way, Freedom Trail has what it takes to enjoy dirt. Though his dam placed three of her six starts on turf, her half-sister Del Mar Debutante (G1), the heroine Executiveprivilege, and her half-brother, multiple Grade 1 winner Hoppertunity, certainly excelled on dirt. Additionally, John Terranova sent El Kabeir to capture the 2014 edition of this race. Add in the fact that Freedom Trail has a nice gait, great leg extension, is undefeated, and is dragging Florent Geroux in the saddle and we’re serious candidate.

The Freedom Trail enters this spot unbeaten…on grass. He received low ’80s Brisnet speed ratings on those two launches. As Laurie said, it’s a bit odd that John Terranova would choose this location for the Son of Collected’s first dirt race when he’s already raced at Aqueduct. Terranova has had great success with shippers, but he only wins a four percent share of tiered stakes. While Laurie pointed out that Freedom Trail has the breeding to enjoy dirt, I personally have to do that happen.

7. Hayes Strike (10-1)

If we throw away Hayes Strike’s penultimate race, when he got on his knees, kissed dirt at the start and retired last, we’ll see the speed numbers gradually improve. The McPeek trainee also wobbled slightly at the start of the Street Sense Stakes and was again at the bottom of the field. However, I liked how he was gaining ground, walking between the horses and showing the athleticism of picking his way through traffic. Live full length.

Hayes Strike has two really bad races, his debut, which he never got involved in, and an optional claimer, which Laurie pointed out had every excuse in the book. He won straight away and finished a credible fourth behind the winner in the Iroquois (G3). Curly Jack. He then ran well and finished second in the sloppy Street Sense (G3). Looking back on his past races, Hayes Strike has done his best when he was at or near pace so Rafael Bejarano would do well to secure a clean break and a top position. I agree with Laurie. Live full length.

8th. instant coffee (5-2)

In his debut, Instant Coffee defeated two next-out winners in Saratoga. Then Brad Cox’s trainee switched to a new course, adding the distance and meeting winners in a Grade 1 stakes. This is a challenging task for a young person. Instant Coffee made up ground to finish fourth, a head behind Red Route One, so it wasn’t a dismal effort. The Cox/Saez team makes instant coffee their favorite, but there are others here that I like more. exotics.

I think Laurie summed up this filly quite well. He was credible in his first start against Sieger, who got a first grade. He does boast a high percentage of connections, but I think that’s a good example of a false favorite. exotics.

9. Cyclone Calamity (8-1)

Cyclone Mischief was bold in his debut, setting the pace and setting fast early factions. He stubbornly held his lead through the course only to get pinned in the shadow of the wire. However, he returned to Keeneland a month later to dominate the girls by 5 1/4 lengths. The son of Into Mischief is the second foal out of a half sister to Grade 3 winner Suddenbreakingnews and descends from the family of Grade 1 winner and sire Composure. Dale Romans and Joe Talamo have won three starts out of seven in the past two weeks. Candidate.

I like that the two races of Cyclone Mischief were track races. However, his Brisnet speed rating dropped from his debut to his second start, though he won easily at Keeneland. While Dale Romans has a 19 percent rate of winning last-time winners, he only succeeds 7 percent of the time in graded stakes. Exotic at best.

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