Clemson will want to control the tempo in Week 13, so make sure the Tigers lean on ground play against South Carolina’s leaky running defense. Our college football squad thinks a certain forgotten man in the backfield is the smartest target.
A rivalry game in name only. The South Carolina Gamecocks would no doubt take offense at that description, but the Clemson Tigers have won the last seven matchups between these two opponents in the state by an average margin of 26 points. South Carolina can hardly claim to have been competitive lately, having come up just once in three holdings since 2014.
Here are our free college football tips and predictions for South Carolina vs. Clemson on Saturday, November 26, kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET.
South Carolina vs Clemson best odds
Selection and predictions between South Carolina and Clemson
Handicaps in that last week of the regular season often depend on how motivated you are. However, a more typical thought might apply to South Carolina. The Gamecocks have already won seven games this season – they’re going to a bowl game. However, their excitement in Tennessee last week may have eased any urgency in South Carolina.
A disappointment would be understandable. The Gamecocks might have ridden that thrill well into Thanksgiving. But that kind of oversight will cost Clemson dearly. Giving the Tigers an edge will inevitably see them run the ball more often – their motivation centered on a strong win before heading out to the ACC title game.
There’s argument number one for where we’re going here.
Once Clemson has a decent lead — say, covering the -14.5 spread or at least getting close to it — South Carolina will happily crush it. The Tigers need a strong win, but not a violent blowout. Beating the Gamecocks at 21 will be less important than simply controlling the entire game. That should give Clemson the style points it takes to leapfrog Alabama in the minds of the college football playoff selection committee, which is the only promotion the Tigers can guarantee.
When DJ Uiagalelei is your quarterback, the best way to control a game is on the ground, especially when Will Shipley is your running back.
There is argument number two.
Good news for Shipley, the Gamecocks’ rush defense is leaking. Some analysts consider it the #121 rush defense in the country. But skip the advanced math and look at the rough stats: South Carolina gives up 188.4 yards per rush per game, No. 110 in the country, on 4.72 yards per rush, No. 109. Vs. Power Five- Opponents have given the Gamecocks 16 rushing touchdowns in eight games, including eight points in their last five games.
So the exact approach Clemson should lean on is the one South Carolina struggles against the most.
What’s the best way to approach this from a gameplay perspective? touchdown props. Unfortunately Shipley odds have become too cheap. With 13 rushing touchdowns this season, his touchdown score odds are as low as -460 anytime. That’s not much of a best bet suggestion. FanDuel puts his chances of scoring at least two touchdowns at +140 – tempting even if he’s only had multiple touchdowns once in his last eight games.
You get a better payout by betting on Kobe Pace to score only once. Who? Nice that you asked. The junior running back missed five games through the end of the season with a sprained ankle. He returned last week and promptly enjoyed six touches in the red zone, scoring once.
In fact, his only touches came in the red. His result was his third of the season, a low number when you’re about to recommend a touchdown prop bet anytime, but remember, that’s three touchdowns in just six games, one of which is limited by that ankle injury .
Against a terrible running defense that may be ill-prepared this week and tiring of the physicality Clemson is likely to display on Saturday, the Tigers should get multiple ball carriers over the goal line. In this case it is only wise to bet on the longer odds.
my best bet: Kobe Pace Anytime Touchdown (+350 at FanDuel)
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Spread analysis between South Carolina and Clemson
This spread opened at -16 on Sunday and was temporarily set at -14.0 before meeting enough resistance to remain at -14.5 for the rest of the week. That’s a frustrating hook on an offense that hung just 63 points last week, including 21 in the fourth quarter.
Clearly, Clemson’s defense is better than Tennessee’s, but South Carolina will still present a backdoor cover concern for anyone supporting the Tigers.
Still, Clemson has covered his last two games since his season at Notre Dame deteriorated. The Tigers didn’t struggle at all with either Louisville or Miami. It’s probably no coincidence that both games were also played at home. Against Power Five opponents, Clemson is 3-1 at home against the spread this year, falling only in that narrow win over Syracuse in late October. It can be difficult to cover a two-touchdown spread when giving up a scoop-and-score from goal-line to goal-line.
An early Tigers lead can balloon simply because one of those teams is actively motivated this week while the other clinches their biggest win in years.
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South Carolina vs. Clemson Over/Under Analysis
A handicap focused on a game in progress speaks pretty clearly for the Under. Jumping past 52 total might take multiple pace touchdowns, honestly.
Clemson’s offense hasn’t been strong enough to threaten a number like this many times this season, and his defense remains the best unit on the field nearly every week. Only one of the Tigers’ last seven games has had a final score that would have cracked that total, and it broadly aligns with all of those pregame totals.
South Carolina vs. Clemson betting trends to explore
South Carolina is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games after an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Carolina vs Clemson.
Information on the South Carolina vs. Clemson game
|Location:||Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC|
|Kicking off:||12:00 p.m. ET|
South Carolina vs Clemson recent injuries
South Carolina vs. Clemson weather
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